It will then take enormous self-discipline for political leaders to sustain international cooperation and not retreat into overt geopolitical competition. And without the incentive to protect the shared gains from global economic integration, the architecture of global economic governance established in the 20th century will quickly atrophy. It seems highly unlikely in this context that the world will return to the idea of mutually beneficial globalization that defined the early 21st century. Now, COVID-19 is forcing governments, companies, and societies to strengthen their capacity to cope with extended periods of economic self-isolation. Increasing public and political pressure to meet carbon emissions reduction targets had already called into question many companies’ reliance on long-distance supply chains. China’s growing economic and military power had already provoked a bipartisan determination in the United States to decouple China from U.S.-sourced high technology and intellectual property and try to force allies to follow suit. The coronavirus pandemic could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of economic globalization. It did not have to be this way, but the combination of a deadly virus, inadequate planning, and incompetent leadership has placed humanity on a new and worrisome path.īy Robin Niblett, the director and chief executive of Chatham House In short, COVID-19 will create a world that is less open, less prosperous, and less free. We will see a further retreat from hyperglobalization, as citizens look to national governments to protect them and as states and firms seek to reduce future vulnerabilities. Previous plagues-including the influenza epidemic of 1918-1919-did not end great-power rivalry nor usher in a new era of global cooperation. Previous plagues did not end great-power rivalry nor usher in a new era of global cooperation. What won’t change is the fundamentally conflictive nature of world politics. The response in Europe and America has been slow and haphazard by comparison, further tarnishing the aura of the Western “brand.” South Korea and Singapore have responded best, and China has reacted well after its early mistakes. Governments of all types will adopt emergency measures to manage the crisis, and many will be loath to relinquish these new powers when the crisis is over.ĬOVID-19 will also accelerate the shift in power and influence from West to East. The pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. Walt, the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University To help us make sense of the ground shifting beneath our feet as this crisis unfolds, Foreign Policy asked 12 leading thinkers from around the world to weigh in with their predictions for the global order after the pandemic.- Stefan Theil, deputy editorīy Stephen M. This much is certain: Just as this disease has shattered lives, disrupted markets and exposed the competence (or lack thereof) of governments, it will lead to permanent shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become apparent only later. Like the fall of the Berlin Wall or the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the coronavirus pandemic is a world-shattering event whose far-ranging consequences we can only begin to imagine today.
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